Rep. Jerry Nadler has represented Manhattan’s Upper West Side for the past 30 years, while Rep. Carolyn Maloney has represented the Upper East Side. As they progressed through the Democratic ranks, the septuagenarians have become true ambassadors for their various areas.
But that streak might come to an end this year, as the court-appointed special master’s proposed congressional maps put Nadler and Maloney’s residences in the same district. Nadler slammed the district lines right away but indicated he will run in the 12th Congressional District. Maloney also announced her intention to run for the 12th Congressional District on Twitter, possibly setting up a Democratic primary on Aug. 23 between two New York political heavyweights.
That’s just one of the surprising political outcomes resulting from Monday’s maps, which had incumbents and congressional candidates alike scurrying. Should they flee? Is this a winnable district? “I’ve been on so many calls today where we’re saying what the fuck are we doing,” one political consultant on a House campaign told City & State, requesting anonymity so he could talk freely about continuing discussions. Even hours after the maps were revealed, there are still many unsolved questions.
After all, the congressional map is only a draft, and while few predict big revisions, the final maps aren’t due until Friday. Meanwhile, here are some candidates and races to keep an eye on with the new lines.
With new district borders that have Reps, it’s a true East Side/West Side clash. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler are vying for the same seat. The new 12th District stretches from the Upper West and East Sides to around 14th Street in downtown Manhattan.
National Democrats and a sizable portion of the donor class are likely to be upset, and they may try to derail the pairing of two longstanding leaders who were supposed to retire in a cycle or two anyhow. Insiders believe Nadler will win this election, but he lacks the combat experience of Maloney, who had tough primary fights against Suraj Patel in 2018 and 2020.
Patel had planned to run against Maloney for the third time in a row, but as of Monday, he and Justice Democrats-backed Rana Abdelhamid were both waiting to see what their new choices were. In an email to City & State, Abdelhamid campaign spokesman Natalia Latif said, “We are analyzing all of the specifics of these new maps, but it’s essential to emphasize that these maps are not final.” “We will wait until the end of the public comment period on Friday before making any further judgments.”
Should Nadler run in the new 12th District, the new 10th District will be a vacant seat because no incumbent already resides there. The new district comprises all of lower Manhattan below around 14th Street, as well as a significant swath of Brooklyn running from Brooklyn Heights through Park Slope and down to Borough Park, much like the previous “Jerry-mandered” area.
State Senator Brad Hoylman, who now represents only a small portion of the area, has expressed interest in the position. Assembly Member Robert Carroll, whose Brooklyn seat is nearly fully within the new 10th District, has also expressed his support.
Those two may be the only ones to make it official, but talk about who else could run is widespread. Former Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Comptroller Scott Stringer, current Comptroller Brad Lander, Assembly Member Yuh-Line Niou, City Council Members Shahana Hanif and Lincoln Restler, and former City Council candidate Brandon West are among the names being mentioned by politicians. Stringer declined to comment, while Hanif laughed and claimed she’s focused on her current work. West stated that he will wait to see how the field plays out.
The unusually quirky, five-county district Democrats had initially drawn that spans Long Island Sound from Suffolk County to Westchester County is missing from the freshly proposed congressional borders on Long Island.
The greatest issue is whether Westchester County-based Democratic state senator Alessandra Biaggi would continue her candidacy for the new 3rd District. Robert Zimmerman and Melanie D’Arrigo, both of whom published comments claiming they are still running in the 3rd District, are leading Long Islanders in that primary. Rep. Tom Suozzi, who is running for governor, presently represents much of that area.
There are more available seats in the 1st District, with Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin running for governor, and Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice not seeking reelection in the 4th District. The district Zeldin is retiring would have undoubtedly gone blue under Democratic lines, but it retains its traditional right-leaning swing status under the special master map.
The most significant change is the Democratic contender Jackie Gordon, who lost to Rep. Andrew Garbarino in the 2nd District in 2020. Under the initial lines, Gordon planned to run for the available seat in the 1st District. However, with the updated draft maps, Gordon tweeted that she will be running in her home district, perhaps setting up a rematch with Garbarino.
Members of Congress in New York are not required to live in the districts they represent, so this isn’t as serious as it may appear. The districts that Jeffries, Clarke, and Meng presently represent haven’t altered all that much, thus it’s highly probable that they’ll run in those districts again and win. Velázquez’s district has shifted dramatically, but many of her current constituents live in the mainly Hispanic, likely progressive 7th District, which seems like a good fit for her. However, things are less obvious to the north of the city.
His Cold Springhouse is just barely in the new 17th District, while Jones, the district’s incumbent congressman, finds his new home of White Plains securely drawn into the new 16th District. So, what does it all mean? If Jones wants to stay in Congress, he’ll have to pick between Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and fellow freshman legislator – and radical “Squad” member – Bowman. Jones was allegedly irritated by Maloney’s intrusion into his district… However, going on Bowman appears to be a less difficult task, and Jones is projected to win in this new district.
Looking elsewhere, Maloney’s move clears the way for an open seat in the 18th Congressional District, which currently has no incumbent. Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan, who had previously intimated that he may run for the 19th District, which Rep. Antonio Delgado would leave to become lieutenant governor, has declared that he will instead run for the new 18th District, which he will be a part of under the new plan.
Under the current congressional lines, voters in the region will still have to vote in a special election to replace Delgado this year, and with Ryan running in a different district, Democrats will need to find a new candidate to challenge Molinaro in both the special and general elections in November.
