Putin is reportedly OPEN to ceasefire discussions, but ONLY if negotiations are led by Donald Trump

In a significant development, Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed a willingness to engage in discussions regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. However, this openness comes with stringent demands: Putin insists on retaining control over Ukrainian territory and expects Kyiv to abandon its aspirations for NATO membership, as reported by five Kremlin insiders to Reuters.

As Trump prepares to take office, Russia currently occupies a substantial portion of Ukraine—approximately 18% of the country, including all of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, and significant portions of the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk). Additionally, Russia controls over 70% of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, nearly 3% of the Kharkiv region, and a small area of Mykolaiv. In total, this amounts to over 110,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian land.

In a counter-invasion effort, Ukraine has managed to hold approximately 650 square kilometers of Russia’s Kursk region, where Russian forces have faced considerable resistance in their attempts to regain control.

According to Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters’ Moscow bureau chief, the Kremlin insiders indicated that Putin might be amenable to halting his invasion, effectively freezing the conflict along current front lines. Negotiations could focus on the division of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. There is also the possibility that Russia could withdraw from smaller areas in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. However, the recent U.S. approval for Ukraine to utilize ATACMS missiles on Russian territory could complicate these discussions and intensify Moscow’s demands.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized the challenges of reaching a ceasefire, stating, “Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way.” This sentiment reflects the Kremlin’s position that any potential agreement must align with their strategic interests.

The U.S. response to Russia’s escalation has been to authorize Ukraine’s use of these advanced weapons, particularly in light of recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which included 120 missiles and 90 drones in a single day, as well as the reported arrival of North Korean troops in Russia.

In June, Putin outlined his initial terms for an immediate end to hostilities: Ukraine must renounce its NATO ambitions and withdraw its military from the territories of four regions that Russia claims and largely controls. The Kremlin remains steadfast in its opposition to Ukraine joining NATO or allowing NATO troops on its soil, while simultaneously expressing a willingness to discuss security guarantees for Kyiv.

Additional concessions that the Kremlin may seek from Ukraine include limiting the size of its armed forces and ensuring the unrestricted use of the Russian language within Ukraine. Domestically, Putin could present a ceasefire that secures most of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as a victory, framing it as a means to protect Russian speakers and maintain a land corridor to Crimea.

A senior Kremlin insider, speaking on the condition of anonymity, asserted that the West must confront the “harsh truth” that its support for Ukraine cannot prevent Russia from claiming victory. “He [Putin] will likewise have the deciding voice on any ceasefire, according to the five current and former officials,” the report states.

When discussing the potential framework for a ceasefire, two Russian sources referenced a draft agreement from negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022, which Putin has cited as a possible foundation for a deal. Under this draft, Ukraine would commit to permanent “neutrality” in exchange for unspecified “security guarantees” from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: the U.S., Britain, China, France, and Russia.

While Ukraine has pursued NATO membership since Russia’s initial invasion in 2014, the urgency of this pursuit has intensified following the full-scale invasion in 2022. However, any agreement would hinge on Ukraine receiving security guarantees without explicitly addressing future Russian invasion plans. As one Russian official noted, “The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day.”

In summary, while Putin’s willingness to discuss a ceasefire may signal a potential shift in the conflict, the demands placed on Ukraine raise significant concerns about the future of its sovereignty and security.